'This year might be a peak,' said John Taylor, a video game and toy analyst for Arcadia Investment Corp. in Portland, Ore. 'People are thinking if everything goes well, 'Transformers' could rival 'Star Wars' as the single biggest-selling property. With 'G.I. Joe' on top of that, you've got a shot at breaking $700 million. It's going to be a great year for this stuff.'

Retailers have come to rely on Hollywood, especially during the summer.

Store buyers are looking for the pop culture phenomenon to lure consumers into shops. They draft off of studios' multimillion-dollar movie marketing campaigns to spur interest in action figures, building sets, video games and other items with a cinematic tie-in.

'We definitely feel like customers are responding to entertainment-driven merchandise,' said Laura Phillips, vice president of toys in the U.S. for Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

But with a glut of effects-driven summer films to choose from, retailers have grown more discerning about which properties they'll back. That's especially the case now, in the depth of a recession, when consumers have cut back on such discretionary purchases.

Shelf space is shrinking as stores devote more real estate to other products vying for a child's attention, such as video games.

Target Corp. and Wal-Mart stocked little merchandise associated with the Disney/Pixar movie 'Up,' principally because toy makers largely stayed away. Even analysts predicted -- incorrectly, as the $269-million domestic box office shows -- that the movie wouldn't connect with children. Its box-office total was more than 'Star Trek' or 'Cars.' Neither retailer carried any of the plush toys based on 'Monsters vs. Aliens,' which also turned out to be a theatrical success, said Marty Brochstein, senior vice president of industry relations for the International Licensing Industry Merchandisers' Assn.

Not every movie lends itself to a toy line (and vice versa). Based on the popular Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles toys, Warner Bros.' 2007 film 'TMNT,' for example, had a less-than-warrior-like box-office performance, selling only $95 million in global ticket sales. The homely Ogre character, based on DreamWorks Animation's 'Shrek,' did not fly off the shelves as a cuddly plush doll, according to analysts.

'If you've got a great film that resonates with the target audience, it can do really well,' said Howard Roffman, president of Lucas Licensing. The Lucasfilm Ltd. division's Star Wars characters and spaceships have accounted for $18 billion in global sales since George Lucas' first film in 1977. 'If it doesn't, no amount of marketing or ancillary products is going to make it work.'

Walt Disney is considered the granddaddy of movie